The welfare effects of rural-urban migration: Is it possible to consider urbanization a positive outcome of rural-to-urban migration?

Abstract

The twenty-first century marks a pivotal moment in human history, characterized by the unprecedented migration of over two billion people from rural to urban areas. This monumental shift signifies the culmination of humanity’s transition to a predominantly urban species. This mass migration will profoundly affect nearly every individual, reshaping societal structures and dynamics. Moreover, the shift towards urban living is poised to curb population growth by reducing family sizes. While urbanization is often equated with population growth, it is essential to distinguish between urbanization and urban growth. Rural-urban migration plays a significant role in urbanization, but natural population growth predominantly drives urban expansion. Contrary to conventional wisdom, some argue that urban growth is decelerating, and that urbanization should be viewed as a catalyst for socio-economic development rather than a hindrance. This essay by Santiago Rossi aims to contribute to the discourse by examining the relationship between rural-urban migration, urban population growth and economic development, focusing on Africa and Asia. By analyzing migration trends in these urbanizing continents, the study seeks to elucidate whether urbanization represents a positive trajectory for the future. Engaging in this debate prompts critical reflection on differing perspectives, rather than prescribing definitive solutions.